275 Cays Dr #2208

Goodland, FL 34114

$450,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$1,122
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $-522/mo
• Annual: $-6,269/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $358k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#893 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,379/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?