1228 Valley St

Dallas, TX 75203

$184,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,993/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$819
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-215/mo
• Annual: $-2,577/yr
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.91%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (20.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $185k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,993/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 948% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.