2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
850 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 93 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,209/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$210
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$254
Net cashflow
$-41/mo
Annual
$-491/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.17%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-491/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (19.3% below list).
It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $121k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Irving El (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 521 students, 83% FRL); Ad Wheat Middle (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 703 students, 76% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29