2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Townhouse
· Active
· 88 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,622/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,622
Tax + insurance
−$379
HOA
−$131
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$761
Net cashflow
$-271/mo
Annual
$-3,251/yr
Cap rate
5.64%
Cash-on-cash
-2.32%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$140,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $500k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (9.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (27.6% below list).
It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $362k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#49 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Douglas County School District (town): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #3 of 17 in NV (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Zephyr Cove Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #48 of 402 statewide, top 13%, 149 students, 26% FRL); George Whittell High School (math 34% / reading 64%, grade D, #29 of 131 statewide, top 22%, 152 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 314 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Douglas County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.2% in Kingsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZM8RZX455491M7
· Data 36 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29