2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
900 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 15 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,224/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$19
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$257
Net cashflow
$499/mo
Annual
$5,987/yr
Cap rate
15.50%
Cash-on-cash
32.89%
DSCR
2.46
1% rule
1.88%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#235 in SC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Willow Drive Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #587 of 597 statewide, top 99%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Ebenezer Middle (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #191 of 229 statewide, top 85%, 371 students, 100% FRL); Sumter High School (math 22% / reading 67%, grade F, #166 of 196 statewide, top 87%, 2,289 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $41k; list at $65k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.4% in Sumter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZMEFES3WCS5E4X
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29