630 Hunter Circle - Private Vacation Clb Unit 4 2ND HOME ALT

Emerald Lakes, PA 18372

$163,770B+

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,679 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 655 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$859
• Tax + insurance: −$273
• HOA: −$368
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $1,660/mo
• Annual: $19,923/yr
• Cap rate: 18.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.45%
• DSCR: 2.93
• 1% rule: 2.44%
• Cash to close: $45,856

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $164k).
• It's been on market 655 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-28 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 3.6% in Emerald Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 655 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.