Bayport II Plan

Plant City, FL 33565

$243,700C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,682 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,639/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax + insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-26/mo
• Annual: $-306/yr
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $68,236

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-306/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $244k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.