205 E Franklin St

Louisa, KY 41230

$169,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,695 sqft · Built 1932 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-204/mo
• Annual: $-2,451/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.18%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (33.9% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louisa East Elementary School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #329 of 676 statewide, top 49%, 491 students, 62% FRL); Louisa Middle School (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #116 of 217 statewide, top 55%, 457 students, 67% FRL); Lawrence County High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 738 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $133k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.