405 Evergreen Ave

Garibaldi, OR 97118

$244,950D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,612 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-331/mo
• Annual: $-3,968/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $68,586

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (36.0% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#99 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Neah-Kah-Nie SD 56 (rural): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #62 of 183 in OR (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garibaldi Elementary School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 120 students, 52% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie Middle School (math 24% / reading 57%, grade F, #41 of 128 statewide, top 32%, 177 students, 44% FRL); Neah-Kah-Nie High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #32 of 143 statewide, top 34%, 280 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $245k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.