22240 Deval Ln

Coffee City, TX 75763

$244,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,280
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-530/mo
• Annual: $-6,358/yr
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.31%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $68,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-530 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (38.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (42.6% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chandler El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 450 students, 74% FRL); Brownsboro J H (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 405 students, 60% FRL); Brownsboro H S (math 31% / reading 63%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 757 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.