2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,074 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 47 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,267/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$119
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$266
Net cashflow
$646/mo
Annual
$7,754/yr
Cap rate
23.52%
Cash-on-cash
61.54%
DSCR
3.74
1% rule
2.82%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $646 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $1k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $740 appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#492 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 5.1% in Needles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZMV75E7MXYBV1F
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29