5137 Armina Pl

Lakewood Park, FL 34951

$375,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,623 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,925/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-499/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-499/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lawnwood Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 746 students, 89% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 59% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,925/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?