3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
978 sqft ·
Built 2013
· Other
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,057/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,253
Tax + insurance
−$376
HOA
−$33
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$432
Net cashflow
$-37/mo
Annual
$-443/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.66%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$66,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $239k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-443/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (2.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (13.9% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $206k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#687 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
Upper Adams SD (rural): math 33% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #298 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZNJXYE4WNNAN3N
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29