3846 Log Cabin Dr

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$116,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,299 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $281/mo
• Annual: $3,368/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $32,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $116k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $116k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $116k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.