3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,140 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,373/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$375
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$498
Net cashflow
$320/mo
Annual
$3,840/yr
Cap rate
8.00%
Cash-on-cash
6.09%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: De Zavala El (math 29% / reading 23%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 703 students, 86% FRL); Alamo J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 865 students, 62% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,373/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZPC2AW59ETGKSZ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29