375 Marshall Johnson Rd

Pilot Mountain, NC 27041

$79,050B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$415
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $378/mo
• Annual: $4,533/yr
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.48%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $22,134

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#309 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Surry County Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #60 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westfield Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,410 statewide, top 28%, 176 students, 72% FRL); Pilot Mountain Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #113 of 475 statewide, top 25%, 454 students, 57% FRL); East Surry High (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #164 of 535 statewide, top 32%, 594 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 243 units permitted in Surry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Surry County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 2.2% in Pilot Mountain — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.