3459 Pine Rdg

Burton, MI 48519

$55,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2015 · Other · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$704
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $59/mo
• Annual: $702/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 2.63%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($702/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Atherton Community Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #481 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.