3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,163 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 96 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,583/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$645
Tax + insurance
−$162
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$332
Net cashflow
$443/mo
Annual
$5,318/yr
Cap rate
10.62%
Cash-on-cash
15.44%
DSCR
1.69
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$34,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $112k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: University Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #300 of 646 statewide, top 47%, 954 students, 52% FRL); Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); Captain Shreve High School (math 25% / reading 41%, grade F, #116 of 265 statewide, top 44%, 1,851 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 64% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.7% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZQ0R590W4KRVZF
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29