585 Timberwolf Dr

Goreville, IL 62939

$119,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1990 · Other · Under Contract · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $627/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($627/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (8.8% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#298 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Goreville CUD 1 (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #337 of 620 in IL (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Goreville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 452 students, 0% FRL); Goreville High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 172 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP.
• Johnson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.2% in Goreville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.