2109 Shirley Dr

Corpus Christi, TX 78416

$80,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$673
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-380/yr
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.15%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-380/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $74k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Corpus Christi ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #562 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.6% in Corpus Christi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.