4 bd · 3.5 ba ·
3,770 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$15,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,812
Tax + insurance
−$1,551
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,150
Net cashflow
$3,487/mo
Annual
$41,847/yr
Cap rate
9.51%
Cash-on-cash
11.51%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$363,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.30M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($42k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.30M).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.28M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wingdale Elementary School (246 students, 68% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 38% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Dover Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $98k; list at $1.30M implies a 1232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $364k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZRA03D0QF5GXEC
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29