3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,680 sqft ·
Built 2009
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,789/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$172
HOA
−$15
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$376
Net cashflow
$-164/mo
Annual
$-1,963/yr
Cap rate
5.55%
Cash-on-cash
-2.65%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (10.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (32.5% below list).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $179k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Monrovia Elementary School (math 37% / reading 69%, grade C, #100 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 495 students, 29% FRL); Monrovia Middle School (math 29% / reading 66%, grade C-, #32 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 1,003 students, 31% FRL); Sparkman High School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #58 of 305 statewide, top 19%, 1,738 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 666 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $128k; list at $265k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Harvest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZRA222A0EY6WQB
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29