4170 Hurt Bridge Ct

Cumming, GA 30028

$389,900C+

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,003 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$802
• Net cashflow: $604/mo
• Annual: $7,243/yr
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Matt Elementary School (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #173 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 1,116 students, 15% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #56 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 1,032 students, 14% FRL); West Forsyth High School (math 23% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 424 statewide, top 20%, 2,405 students, 9% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 544 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $390k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($138k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.