2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,118 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Townhouse
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,438/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$257
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$302
Net cashflow
$40/mo
Annual
$477/yr
Cap rate
6.59%
Cash-on-cash
1.06%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$44,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($477/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (10.1% below list).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $144k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fannin El (math 27% / reading 12%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 306 students, 92% FRL); Lone Star Middle (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 903 students, 63% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 53% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZRY9R305S3ZHMP
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29