3151 Juan Castillo Ave

Port Isabel, TX 78578

$289,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-9/mo
• Annual: $-114/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-114/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#157 in TX, #4,282 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Garriga El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 443 students, 96% FRL); Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Port Isabel H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 606 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 35% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Port Isabel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.