4337 Covey Cir Unit 9C

Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$333,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 268 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$688
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-306/mo
• Annual: $-3,674/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $93,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $333k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (8.3% below list).
• It's been on market 268 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $279k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $982 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $87k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $333k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 268 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.