3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
966 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 332 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,228/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$645
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$-75/mo
Annual
$-897/yr
Cap rate
5.56%
Cash-on-cash
-2.61%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
1.00%
Cash to close
$34,412
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $123k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-897/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (10.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (0.1% below list).
It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#215 in NY, #3,348 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
Cheektowaga-Sloan Union Free School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #555 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZSY6BE1990484G
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29