3 Oak Village Ct

Trophy Club, TX 76262

$542,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,433 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,842
• Tax + insurance: −$868
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$969
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-766/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $151,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $542k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-766/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $531k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $462k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($526k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $462k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#66 in TX, #2,390 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview El (math 75% / reading 68%, grade A-, #117 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 547 students, 8% FRL); Medlin Middle (math 66% / reading 61%, grade B+, #115 of 1,662 statewide, top 7%, 991 students, 12% FRL); Byron Nelson H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 2,809 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Northwest ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 384 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.5% in Trophy Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($151k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.