Churchill (Westridge) Plan

Paducah, KY 42086

$85,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,165/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$355
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-29/mo
• Annual: $-344/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $24,079

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $86k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-344/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heath Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #133 of 676 statewide, top 20%, 484 students, 53% FRL); Heath Middle School (math 43% / reading 60%, grade C, #19 of 217 statewide, top 8%, 410 students, 48% FRL); Mccracken County High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,999 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.