3207 Hopewell Church Rd

Hamilton, GA 31822

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,424/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-143/mo
• Annual: $-1,721/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (28.8% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#115 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harris County (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #27 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Park Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #485 of 1,228 statewide, top 41%, 560 students, 56% FRL); Creekside School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #135 of 470 statewide, top 29%, 858 students, 30% FRL); Harris County High School (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #88 of 424 statewide, top 22%, 1,703 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.