4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,416 sqft ·
Built 1930
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,351/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$343
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$494
Net cashflow
$471/mo
Annual
$5,649/yr
Cap rate
9.13%
Cash-on-cash
10.14%
DSCR
1.45
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
11 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
At $2,351/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 2251% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZTQFBHDPTZYGWP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29