2465 Begonia St

Mascotte, FL 34753

$280,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,537 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,471
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,964/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $78,540

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mascotte Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 855 students, 62% FRL, charter); Gray Middle School (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 1,148 students, 47% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.