5017 Boicewood St

Houston, TX 77016

$199,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,613 sqft · Built 1953 · MultiFamily · Active · 329 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $530/mo
• Annual: $6,356/yr
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.41%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $265/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cook Jr El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 519 students, 96% FRL); Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Kashmere H S (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 725 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 467 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 74% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?