3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1917
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 95 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,192/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$293
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$250
Net cashflow
$308/mo
Annual
$3,694/yr
Cap rate
11.98%
Cash-on-cash
20.30%
DSCR
1.90
1% rule
1.83%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
Johnstown City School District (town): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #509 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29