4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
29,997 sqft ·
Built 1925
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 58 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,900/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,666
Tax + insurance
−$1,165
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,449
Net cashflow
$620/mo
Annual
$7,444/yr
Cap rate
7.36%
Cash-on-cash
3.80%
DSCR
1.17
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$195,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $699k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $690k (1.3% below list).
It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($678k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $678k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#343 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, housing D+, crime F.
South Orange-Maplewood School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #114 of 472 in NJ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Newark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZXP16WCDKXF2NW
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29