7070 Wildwood Cir #153

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291

$109,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 683 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$179
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-459/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $102k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (1.9% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fern Creek Elementary (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #599 of 676 statewide, top 89%, 712 students, 66% FRL); Newburg Middle (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 941 students, 64% FRL); Fern Creek High (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #199 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 1,688 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $109k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.