658 Route 536

Timblin, PA 16040

$129,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 600 sqft · Built 1895 · Other · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,594/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (36.1% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,613 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Punxsutawney Area SD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #239 of 539 in PA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $130k implies a 899% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?