2877 Cesar Chavez St

San Francisco, CA 94110

$899,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1922 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,687/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$1,339
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,404
• Net cashflow: $-771/mo
• Annual: $-9,246/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-771 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $763k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $669k (25.6% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($872k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $669k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,687/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?