205 Natick Cir

Camillus, NY 13031

$149,900C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1976 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $128/mo
• Annual: $1,537/yr
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Genesee Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #241 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Camillus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.