205 Natick Cir · Camillus, NY 13031

$149,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1976 4,356 sqft lot Est $176k · 15% under $250/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy carefree living in this 2bed 1 full bath condo in West Genesee schools. the home has a open floor plan with dining and living room connected. kitchen leads to sliding door that the open to front porch area and storage shed. 2nd floor has 2 good size bedrooms and full bath, along with separate area for washer and dryer. Back yard is fenced in 3 side and has open grass area. you can drive into your own carport that is located in front of your entry door. The HOA includes access to tennis courts & pool. All offers must have proof of funds and signed contract addendums. Estate Sale sold as-is. No offers will be reviewed until April 26 at 12 noon.

Key facts

• Cozy front deck
• Refreshing pool
• Private carport

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COZY FRONT DECK
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PRIVATE CARPORT
• REFRESHING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.8% in Camillus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Genesee Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #241 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,016
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Barnstable Ct	0.05mi	2/1.0	882 (-3%)	1mo	$170,000	$193	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-18,004
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,679
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13031

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,177/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,726

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Weatheridge Dr Camillus, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	897	$1,925	$2.14	13d	14	0.30mi
52 Main St Camillus, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	759	$2,270	$2.99	13d	3	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $149,900
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $154,900 Active
4. 2022-08-03
   soldstatus $105,000
5. 2022-07-28
   soldstatus $105,000 Closed Sale or Rented 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Enjoy carefree living in this 2bed 1 full bath condo in West Genesee schools. the home has a open floor plan with dining and living room connected. kitchen leads to sliding door that the open to front porch area and storage shed. 2nd floor has 2 good size bedrooms and full bath, along with separate area for washer and dryer. Back yard is fenced in 3 side and has open grass area. you can drive into your own carport that is located in front of your entry door. The HOA includes access to tennis courts & pool. All offers must have proof of funds and signed contract addendums. Estate Sale sold as-is. No offers will be reviewed until April 26 at 12 noon.

6. 2022-05-09
   status Pending Sale 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Enjoy carefree living in this 2bed 1 full bath condo in West Genesee schools. the home has a open floor plan with dining and living room connected. kitchen leads to sliding door that the open to front porch area and storage shed. 2nd floor has 2 good size bedrooms and full bath, along with separate area for washer and dryer. Back yard is fenced in 3 side and has open grass area. you can drive into your own carport that is located in front of your entry door. The HOA includes access to tennis courts & pool. All offers must have proof of funds and signed contract addendums. Estate Sale sold as-is. No offers will be reviewed until April 26 at 12 noon.

7. 2022-04-26
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Enjoy carefree living in this 2bed 1 full bath condo in West Genesee schools. the home has a open floor plan with dining and living room connected. kitchen leads to sliding door that the open to front porch area and storage shed. 2nd floor has 2 good size bedrooms and full bath, along with separate area for washer and dryer. Back yard is fenced in 3 side and has open grass area. you can drive into your own carport that is located in front of your entry door. The HOA includes access to tennis courts & pool. All offers must have proof of funds and signed contract addendums. Estate Sale sold as-is. No offers will be reviewed until April 26 at 12 noon.

8. 2022-04-21
   listed $99,900 Active 662-char remark

   Show marketing remark (662 chars)

   Enjoy carefree living in this 2bed 1 full bath condo in West Genesee schools. the home has a open floor plan with dining and living room connected. kitchen leads to sliding door that the open to front porch area and storage shed. 2nd floor has 2 good size bedrooms and full bath, along with separate area for washer and dryer. Back yard is fenced in 3 side and has open grass area. you can drive into your own carport that is located in front of your entry door. The HOA includes access to tennis courts & pool. All offers must have proof of funds and signed contract addendums. Estate Sale sold as-is. No offers will be reviewed until April 26 at 12 noon.

9. 2001-09-07
   soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$3,177
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$157
• After-tax cash flow: $1,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Genesee Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630630
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $65,588
• Composite: 51.31/100
• National rank: #1745
• State rank: #241 of 590 in NY

Livability — Camillus

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10126

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• City population: 16,285
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,285
• Household income: $88,224
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.56%
• Current HPI: 317.4693
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+185.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $154,900 CNYIS
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (MLS) $105,000 CNYIS
• 2022-05-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-04-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2001-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,177 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.