6509 Hines Rd

Disputanta, VA 23842

$260,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,027 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,763/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,969/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Disputanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.