6509 Hines Rd · Disputanta, VA 23842

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,027 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1974 1.49 ac lot $128/sqft · 41% below area Est $440k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided ranch on 1.49 acres. Large family room with gas fireplace with open concept to the kitchen and bar. There is a water softener, house generator, large covered decks, double size storage building. Need cosmetic work to make this a stunning ranch! House Sold As - IS.

Key facts

• 1.49 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Disputanta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,278 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,172
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -40.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6809 Woodhaven Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-12%)	12mo	$368,000	$205	57
15300 Greenbriar Blvd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-11%)	4mo	$430,000	$238	38
15550 Greenbriar Blvd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,250 (+11%)	20mo	$515,000	$229	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-57,961
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-71,048
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23842

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,076

Max offer price $216,288

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $260,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    status Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided ranch on 1.49 acres. Large family room with gas fireplace with open concept to the kitchen and bar. There is a water softener, house generator, large covered decks, double size storage building. Need cosmetic work to make this a stunning ranch! House Sold As - IS.

15. 2026-05-08
    price $275,000 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided ranch on 1.49 acres. Large family room with gas fireplace with open concept to the kitchen and bar. There is a water softener, house generator, large covered decks, double size storage building. Need cosmetic work to make this a stunning ranch! House Sold As - IS.

16. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided ranch on 1.49 acres. Large family room with gas fireplace with open concept to the kitchen and bar. There is a water softener, house generator, large covered decks, double size storage building. Need cosmetic work to make this a stunning ranch! House Sold As - IS.

17. 2026-04-20
    listed $299,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided ranch on 1.49 acres. Large family room with gas fireplace with open concept to the kitchen and bar. There is a water softener, house generator, large covered decks, double size storage building. Need cosmetic work to make this a stunning ranch! House Sold As - IS.

18. 2019-05-01
    soldstatus $175,000
19. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained, rustic, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided rancher on 1.49+- acres. The wonderful feature of this home is the large, cozy family room with gas log fireplace that is open to the kitchen. Other features include formal dining and living rooms, whole house gas generator, water softener, central air (2 years old), electric base board heat, large covered deck, sizeable car carport, detached storage building. House is sold in "AS IS" condition. Great buy for the price!

20. 2018-10-09
    status Pending 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained, rustic, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided rancher on 1.49+- acres. The wonderful feature of this home is the large, cozy family room with gas log fireplace that is open to the kitchen. Other features include formal dining and living rooms, whole house gas generator, water softener, central air (2 years old), electric base board heat, large covered deck, sizeable car carport, detached storage building. House is sold in "AS IS" condition. Great buy for the price!

21. 2018-05-08
    price $175,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained, rustic, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided rancher on 1.49+- acres. The wonderful feature of this home is the large, cozy family room with gas log fireplace that is open to the kitchen. Other features include formal dining and living rooms, whole house gas generator, water softener, central air (2 years old), electric base board heat, large covered deck, sizeable car carport, detached storage building. House is sold in "AS IS" condition. Great buy for the price!

22. 2017-12-22
    price $169,900 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained, rustic, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided rancher on 1.49+- acres. The wonderful feature of this home is the large, cozy family room with gas log fireplace that is open to the kitchen. Other features include formal dining and living rooms, whole house gas generator, water softener, central air (2 years old), electric base board heat, large covered deck, sizeable car carport, detached storage building. House is sold in "AS IS" condition. Great buy for the price!

23. 2017-10-19
    listed $178,900 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Well maintained, rustic, 4 bedroom, 2 full bath, vinyl sided rancher on 1.49+- acres. The wonderful feature of this home is the large, cozy family room with gas log fireplace that is open to the kitchen. Other features include formal dining and living rooms, whole house gas generator, water softener, central air (2 years old), electric base board heat, large covered deck, sizeable car carport, detached storage building. House is sold in "AS IS" condition. Great buy for the price!

24. 2017-09-15
    historical
25. 2017-07-10
    price $185,500
26. 2017-05-04
    price $187,500
27. 2017-03-14
    listed $191,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Disputanta

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,510

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.49%
• Current HPI: 306.9153
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+43.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $275,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $299,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-30 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-10-09 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2018-05-08 Price Changed $175,000 CVRMLS
• 2017-12-22 Price Changed $169,900 CVRMLS
• 2017-10-19 Listed $178,900 CVRMLS
• 2017-09-15 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2017-07-10 Price Changed $185,500 CVRMLS
• 2017-05-04 Price Changed $187,500 CVRMLS
• 2017-03-14 Listed $191,950 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,019 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.