9018 Gulf Shore Ter

Parrish, FL 34219

$288,490C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,626/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,513
• Tax + insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $967/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $80,777

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($967/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 3218 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.