9018 Gulf Shore Ter · Parrish, FL 34219

$307,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $198/sqft · 10% below area Est $342k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home optimizes space and prioritizes ease of living. An open concept design includes the family room and dining room as well as the kitchen with a center island to promote seamless transitions between activities. An attached patio provides outdoor space. Nearby is the cozy owner's suite with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet, while two bedrooms are located down the hall.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open concept design
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-395/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Parrish — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $265,044 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,171
• List price: $307,750
• Delta: -10.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8804 Clear View St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-3%)	2mo	$292,000	$194	89
8817 Clear View St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-3%)	1mo	$303,646	$202	87
8806 Bahama Mia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$203	86
8814 Bahama Mia Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+8%)	3mo	$337,000	$202	78
8808 Clear View St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+7%)	2mo	$334,000	$201	77
9009 Sandy Shores St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+7%)	4mo	$400,000	$241	72
10008 Last Light Gln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-2%)	0mo	$335,000	$221	63
8724 Starry Night Ter	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-4%)	2mo	$344,900	$231	62
8336 Ocean Tides Cv	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-5%)	2mo	$410,000	$278	52
8317 Ocean Tides CV Way	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+6%)	1mo	$382,000	$232	52
8509 Ocean Tides Cv	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+6%)	4mo	$435,000	$264	49
8313 Ocean Tides Cv	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	3mo	$383,000	$273	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-59,694
• Equity at exit: $45,887

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-84,538
• Equity at exit: $26,609

Cash invested: $86,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.6 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $342,775 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$385 /mo · $4,616/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,692

Max offer price $302,983

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $73	+0% $-33	+5% $-139	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-138	+0% $-33	+5% $72	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $45	base $-33	+0.5pp $-113	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,938
• Closing costs: $9,232
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	65d	1	0.12mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	15d	16	0.24mi
9432 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	65d	1	0.25mi
9305 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1671	$2,295	$1.37	32d	1	0.28mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	72d	1	0.32mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,199	$1.32	19d	1	0.35mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,225	$1.34	41d	1	0.35mi
9706 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1932	$2,500	$1.29	35d	1	0.59mi
9262 Gulf Haven Dr Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	2043	$2,750	$1.35	63d	1	0.59mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,500	$1.38	35d	1	0.68mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,300	$1.61	35d	1	0.68mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	52d	1	0.78mi
10013 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,500	$1.67	19d	1	0.81mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$3,036	$2.71	15d	24	0.92mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	52d	1	0.96mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	72d	1	1.01mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	52d	1	1.02mi
10416 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,200	$1.56	19d	1	1.11mi
10455 Wet Marsh Cv Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,650	$1.62	59d	1	1.12mi
10507 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,499	$1.67	27d	1	1.12mi
9552 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,490	$1.52	39d	1	1.20mi
9581 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2112	$2,450	$1.16	27d	1	1.28mi
8415 Abalone Loop Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,699	$1.22	27d	1	1.42mi
10966 High Noon Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,600	$1.72	19d	1	1.44mi
11224 Shoreline Trl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,900	$1.40	25d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $333,500

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, 1,555 living areaFacing direction not provided
• Construction: New construction (Spec)Plan name: Dover
• Exterior features: Living area 1555

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home, Plan: Dover

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-01
   price $307,750 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $307,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $307,250 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $307,250 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $306,250 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   price $306,250 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $305,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   price $305,500 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-07-22
   days on market $305,250 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-07-21
    days on market $305,250 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $305,250 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $305,250 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $304,750 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $304,750 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,750 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $304,750 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $304,750 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $304,750 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $304,750 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $324,750 Active 48 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    price $324,750 Active 47 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $324,500 Active 47 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $324,500 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $324,500 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    price $324,500 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $324,250 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $324,250 Active 42 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $324,250 Active 41 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    price $324,250 Active 40 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $324,000 Active 40 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $324,000 Active 39 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,000 Active 38 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $324,000 Active 37 DOM
34. 2026-06-25
    days on market $324,000 Active 35 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,000 Active 33 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $324,000 Active 32 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $324,000 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    price $324,000 Active 28 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $323,750 Active 28 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $323,750 Active 27 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $323,500 Active 26 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $323,500 Active 24 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $323,250 Active 23 DOM
44. 2026-06-10
    days on market $323,250 Active 21 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $323,250 Active 20 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $323,250 Active 19 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $323,250 Active 18 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $322,750 Active 14 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $322,750 Active 13 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,750 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,616
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$8,953
• Taxable loss: −$5,630
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,775–$23,325 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in living areas — New carpet improves comfort and adds to the home's aesthetic. ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $333,500

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, 1,555 living areaFacing direction not provided
• Construction: New construction (Spec)Plan name: Dover
• Exterior features: Living area 1555

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home, Plan: Dover