14933 Lakeshore Dr

Crystal Lakes, MO 64024

$210,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Coming Soon · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$249
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,025/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.7% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#518 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Excelsior Springs 40 (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #225 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.