14933 Lakeshore Dr · Crystal Lakes, MO 64024

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1999 0.29 ac lot $112/sqft · 11% below area Est $236k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1,872 above-grade living area (source: RPR)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Rural water; Septic tank; Metro Free telecom
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; West-facing
• Construction: Board & batten and vinyl siding; Composition roof; Built approximately 21–30 years ago
• Exterior features: Deck; Lakefront lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum in kitchen and laundry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling (central)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Painted cabinets; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Eat-in and formal dining areas; Crawl space basement; Fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#518 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Excelsior Springs 40 (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #225 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $160,144 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,612
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -10.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14973 Wolfe Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,872 (0%)	8mo	$220,000	$118	85
14831 Crystal Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+3%)	6mo	$164,900	$85	65
14851 Y Hwy	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,848 (-1%)	9mo	$275,000	$149	63
15013 Beach Front Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,864 (-0%)	22mo	$285,000	$153	61
31455 Lyman Ln	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,794 (-4%)	12mo	$338,000	$188	57
105 Ravenwood Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	2,012 (+8%)	10mo	$280,000	$139	48
31730 S Shore Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-6%)	16mo	$179,900	$102	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,507
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-41,561
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64024

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $194,910

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    historical $210,000 12-char remark
15. 2025-03-29
    historical
16. 2025-02-10
    listed $189,000
17. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

18. 2022-06-15
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

19. 2022-06-04
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

20. 2022-05-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

21. 2022-05-30
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

22. 2022-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

23. 2022-05-10
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

24. 2022-05-01
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

25. 2022-04-30
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

26. 2022-03-01
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

27. 2022-02-25
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Over 1800 square feet of one level living space! You will love all the options for space this home has! Formal living room and dining area, spacious kitchen with eat in area, and a family room with a million dollar lake view! The master suite is spacious with two closets and an amazing bathroom with corner whirlpool tub and separate shower. The main floor laundry is connected to the master suite! The two additional bedrooms both feature walk in closets. The lake views from this property are stunning! You can sit on your huge back deck and soak up the view year round! So much NEW in this home over past 3 years! Roof, siding, Exterior paint, gutters, interior paint, flooring, kitchen, bathrooms . .. . ITS ALL BEEN REDONE!! SALE will include the extra lot across the street (Lot 190 block 3).

28. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2020-01-30
    status Pending
30. 2019-11-04
    listed $65,000 Active
31. 2008-09-09
    listed $79,900
32. 2002-05-29
    soldstatus
33. 2002-03-29
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,942 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$95/yr (+$8/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Excelsior Springs 40
• NCES district ID: 2911650
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,747
• Composite: 29.32/100
• National rank: #6548
• State rank: #225 of 324 in MO

Livability — Crystal Lakes

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #19639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Lakes, MO
• County: Clay County · 220,651 people
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 15,574
• Household income: $77,895
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.83%
• Current HPI: 302.9184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+162.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $210,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-29 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-10 Listed $189,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-15 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-04 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-30 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-30 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-18 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-10 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-01 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-30 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-01 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Listed $175,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-28 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-30 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-04 Listed $65,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-09 Listed $79,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-29 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-29 Listed $79,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,942 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.