9401 Osprey Branch Trl #8

Jacksonville, FL 32257

$165,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,563/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$397
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-303/mo
• Annual: $-3,634/yr
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.87%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beauclerc Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 689 students, 52% FRL); Alfred I. Dupont Middle School (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 641 students, 59% FRL); Samuel W. Wolfson High School (math 48% / reading 70%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 922 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.