9401 Osprey Branch Trl #8

Jacksonville, FL 32257

$179,750D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$380
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-438/mo
• Annual: $-5,250/yr
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.43%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $50,330

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Beauclerc Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 689 students, 52% FRL); Alfred I. Dupont Middle School (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 641 students, 59% FRL); Samuel W. Wolfson High School (math 48% / reading 70%, grade C+, #113 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 922 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?