615 W 1st Ave

Globe, AZ 85539

$224,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,710/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $17/mo
• Annual: $202/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($202/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (23.9% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $171k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#145 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Charles A. Bejarano Elementary School (238 students, 66% FRL); Lee Kornegay Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #864 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 200 students, 62% FRL); Miami Junior Senior High School (math 7% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 495 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $225k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.