615 W 1st Ave · Globe, AZ 85539

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2007 5,819 sqft lot Est $186k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This well-kept 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home built in 2007 offers comfort, space, and functionality throughout. Featuring dual carports on both sides of the home, sunscreens for added efficiency, and a workshop for extra storage or hobbies, this property is ready for both work and relaxation. Inside you'll find a very clean interior with a built-in office area, large closets, and a spacious primary suite complete with a separate garden tub and shower for added comfort.

Key facts

• Dual carports
• Workshop
• Built-in office area

Tags

• DUAL CARPORTS
• BUILT-IN OFFICE AREA
• SEPARATE GARDEN TUB AND SHOWER
• WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 4 covered parking spaces; 4 open parking spaces; 4 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Shed(s) on the property; Block and wood fencing; Composition roof; Asphalt road access; Gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Separate shower and tub; Zero-grade (no-step) entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($202/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#145 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Charles A. Bejarano Elementary School (238 students, 66% FRL); Lee Kornegay Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #864 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 200 students, 62% FRL); Miami Junior Senior High School (math 7% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 495 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $225k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,050 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,368
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5613 S Hunt Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	4mo	$209,000	$156	58
5436 E Apache Hills Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	8mo	$132,500	$106	39
5535 E Apache Hills Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	22mo	$199,999	$128	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,764
• Equity at exit: $34,293

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,726
• Equity at exit: $20,753

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $736/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $81	+0% $17	+5% $-47	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-51	+0% $17	+5% $84	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $74	base $17	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   listed $224,900 Active
2. 2019-07-10
   soldstatus $135,000
3. 2019-07-10
   soldstatus $135,000
4. 2019-06-04
   listed $141,900
5. 2007-04-10
   soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$748/yr (+$62/mo · 101.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$736
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,642
• − Management: −$1,642
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,759
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$902
• After-tax cash flow: $1,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Globe

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #17153

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Globe, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+561.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $224,900 ARMLS
• 2019-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-10 Sold (MLS) $135,000 ARMLS
• 2019-06-04 Listed $141,900 ARMLS
• 2007-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $736 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.