424 Oak St

Cobden, IL 62920

$84,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,130/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $230/mo
• Annual: $2,760/yr
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#734 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobden SUD 17 (rural): math 29% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #462 of 919 in IL (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cobden Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 211 students, 0% FRL); Cobden Jr High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 93 students, 0% FRL); Cobden High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 161 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.